Assessing the hidden burden and costs of COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia: Implications for health and well-being of women, children and adolescents.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected vulnerable populations. With its intensity expected to be cyclical over the foreseeable future, and much of the impact estimates still modeled, it is imperative that we accurately assess the impact to date, to help with the process of targeted rebuilding of services. We collected data from administrative health information systems in six South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka), to determine essential health services coverage disruptions between January-December 2020, and January-June 2021, compared to the same calendar months in 2019, and estimated the impact of this disruption on maternal and child mortality using the Lives Saved Tool. We also modelled impact of prolonged school closures on continued enrollment, as well as potential sequelae for the cohort of girls who have likely dropped out. Coverage of key maternal and child health interventions, including antenatal care and immunizations, decreased by up to 60%, with the largest disruptions observed between April and June 2020. This was followed by a period of recovery from July 2020 to March 2021, but a reversal of most of these gains in April/May 2021, likely due to the delta variant-fueled surge in South Asia at the same time. We estimated that disruption of essential health services between January 2020 and June 2021 potentially resulted in an additional 19,000 maternal and 317,000 child deaths, an increase of 19% and 13% respectively, compared to 2019. Extended school closures likely resulted in 9 million adolescents dropping out permanently, with 40% likely being from poorest households, resulting in decreased lifetime earnings. A projected increase in early marriages for girls who dropped out could result in an additional 500,000 adolescent pregnancies, 153,000 low birthweight births, and 27,000 additional children becoming stunted by age two years. To date, the increase in maternal and child mortality due to health services disruption has likely exceeded the overall number of COVID-19 deaths in South Asia. The indirect effects of the pandemic were disproportionately borne by the most vulnerable populations, and effects are likely to be long-lasting, permanent and in some cases inter-generational, unless policies aimed at alleviating these impacts are instituted at scale and targeted to reach the poorest of the poor. There are also implications for future pandemic preparedness.

Community Mobilization and Community Incentivization (CoMIC) Strategy for Child Health in a Rural Setting of Pakistan: Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Despite the decline in under-five mortality by over 60% in the last three decades, majority of child mortality is still attributable to communicable and infectious diseases that are not only preventable, but they are also treatable. We evaluated the potential impact of a participatory community engagement and innovative community incentivization (C3I) strategy for improving the coverage of child health interventions in a rural setting in Pakistan. We first undertook formative research to assess community knowledge and the likelihood of collective community strategy and conditional incentives for improving existing preventive and care-seeking practices for childhood diarrhea and pneumonia. We developed options for community incentivization and improving group practices, taking local norms and customs into account in the design of the community mobilization strategies and messages. These interventions were then formally evaluated prospectively in a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial. Clusters were randomly assigned by a computer algorithm using restricted randomization by an external statistician (1:1:1) into three groups: community mobilization and incentivization (CMI); community mobilization only using an enhanced communication package (CM); and control group. The C3I was an innovative strategy as it involved serial incremental targets of collective improvement in community behavior related to improvement in the coverage of a composite indicator of fully immunized children (FIC), oral rehydration salt (ORS), and the sanitation index (SI). The evaluation was done by an independent data collection and analysis team at baseline and end line (after 24 months).

Characterizing Retail Food Environments in Peri-Urban Pakistan during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

(1) Background: To date, there are limited data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that collect, monitor, and evaluate food environments in standardized ways. The development of a pilot survey tool, tailored to LMICs and focused on retail food environments, is necessary for improving public health nutrition. (2) Methods: A novel survey tool was developed and piloted in a sample of village retail food environments (n = 224) in Matiari, Pakistan between October 2020 to April 2021. Villages were randomly selected, and food outlets were surveyed within a 500-m radius from each village center. Descriptive statistics (counts and percentages) were used to describe the characteristics of food outlets and the availability of food. To test whether there was a difference in characteristics or in the mean of number of healthy, unhealthy, and total food items available by village size, a χ2 test or one-way ANOVA was conducted, respectively. (3) Results: In total, 1484 food outlets were surveyed for food accessibility, availability, and promotion across small (n = 54), medium (n = 112), and large villages (n = 58). In small and medium-sized villages, mobile food vendors were the predominant food outlet type (47.8% and 45.1%, respectively), whereas in large villages, corner stores (36%) were more prominent. The mean number of total food items (p < 0.006) and unhealthy food items (p < 0.001) available in food outlets differed by village size. The proportion of food outlets with available fruits, meat and poultry, water, and sugar-sweetened beverages also differed by village size (p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: This study informs the global evidence gap in the current understanding of food environments in various ethnically diverse and dynamic LMICs, and the developed methodology will be useful to other LMICs for measuring and monitoring the food environment, especially among vulnerable population groups. This work complements current national and provincial survey efforts in Pakistan.

Serial population-based serosurveys for COVID-19 in two neighbourhoods of Karachi, Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To determine population-based estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely populated urban community of Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in April, June and August 2020 in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods. Participants were selected at random to provide blood for Elecsys immunoassay for detection of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 antibodies. A Bayesian regression model was used to estimate seroprevalence after adjusting for the demographic characteristics of each district. RESULTS: In total, 3005 participants from 623 households were enrolled in this study. In Phase 2, adjusted seroprevalence was estimated as 8.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-13.1] and 15.1% (95% CI 9.4-21.7) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively, compared with 0.2% (95% CI 0-0.7) and 0.4% (95% CI 0-1.3) in Phase 1. In Phase 3, it was 12.8% (95% CI 8.3-17.7) and 21.5% (95% CI 15.6-28) in low- and high-transmission areas, respectively. The conditional risk of infection was 0.31 (95% CI 0.16-0.47) and 0.41 (95% CI 0.28-0.52) in low- and high-transmission neighbourhoods, respectively, in Phase 2. Similar trends were observed in Phase 3. Only 5.4% of participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were symptomatic. The infection fatality rate was 1.66%, 0.37% and 0.26% in Phases 1, 2 and 3, respectively. CONCLUSION: Continuing rounds of seroprevalence studies will help to improve understanding of secular trends and the extent of infection during the course of the pandemic.

Global variation of COVID-19 mortality rates in the initial phase.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused devastation in over 200 countries. Italy, Spain, and the United States (US) were most severely affected by the first wave of the pandemic. The reasons why some countries were more strongly affected than others remain unknown. We identified the most-affected and less-affected countries and states and explored environmental, host, and infrastructure risk factors that may explain differences in the SARS-CoV-2 mortality burden. METHODS: We identified the top 10 countries/US states with the highest deaths per population until May 2020. For each of these 10 case countries/states, we identified 6 control countries/states with a similar population size and at least 3 times fewer deaths per population. We extracted data for 30 risk factors from publicly available, trusted sources. We compared case and control countries/states using the non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test, and conducted a secondary cluster analysis to explore the relationship between the number of cases per population and the number of deaths per population using a scalable EM (expectation-maximization) clustering algorithm. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences were found in 16 of 30 investigated risk factors, the most important of which were temperature, neonatal and under-5 mortality rates, the percentage of under-5 deaths due to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and diarrhea, and tuberculosis incidence (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Countries with a higher burden of baseline pediatric mortality rates, higher pediatric mortality from preventable diseases like diarrhea and ARI, and higher tuberculosis incidence had lower rates of coronavirus disease 2019-associated mortality, supporting the hygiene hypothesis.